Every other answer is an evasion. And the simplest answer is almost always the right one, as it is in this case.
This season, Lincecum has lost 3 to 5 mph on his fastball from his double-Cy Young peak in 2008 and 2009.
Which is why the Giants' ace has been far from an ace this season, possibly including tonight's start in St. Louis.
So, why in the world would a 26-year-old suffer such a nfl jerseys
drop in velocity?
Again, the simplest answer: Lincecum was pushed too hard the past two seasons, threw too many pitches at too young an age with too slight a frame, and the result is a decidedly less lively right arm in 2010.
By the way, Lincecum has his highest earned-run average (3.62) and highest WHIP (1.34) since his partial-season as a rookie in 2007.
He might need a rest, but of course, the Giants are in a pennant race and cannot afford to give him one.
Lincecum has been tagged with losses in his past three starts -- longest losing skid of his career -- and if he loses another one tonight, there surely will be 100 more views supplied by the Giants Universe.
You can say Lincecum has been wobbly since the trade of trusted battery mate Bengie Molina, that Lincecum lacks ideal conditioning, or that a communications gap with his father has triggered a crisis of confidence.
But Lincecum's difficulties all come back to losing that fastball, which has led to his pitches getting hit at a far greater rate than anyone is used to.
The math is just the math. It's simple. It's undeniable. It's not a hedge or a diversion.
From the start of the 2008 season to the start of action Friday, Lincecum has thrown 9,764 pitches, the third-highest total in baseball over that period.
According to my calculations, No. 1 is Justin Verlander (10,254 pitches) and No. 2 is CC Sabathia (10,150).
Notably, Lincecum (listed at 5-foot-11, 170 pounds) isn't built nearly as sturdily as Verlander (6-5, 225) and Sabathia (6-7, 290).
It's entirely plausible, and probable, that the large pitch-count has taken a toll on San Francisco 49ers jersey
Lincecum.
According to FanGraphs -- an amazing website that charts every pitch thrown in the majors, among other things -- Lincecum's average fastball in 2008 was 94.1 mph.
This year, his average fastball is down to 91.3 mph. That's a loss of almost 3 mph in two years, and if you've watched Lincecum pitch this season, it seems like he rarely hits even 91 any more.
And you know that he usually starts at 92 or 93 mph in the first inning but is down to 89-90 by the third or fourth innings.
That is absolute danger territory, and Lincecum has responded by throwing his fastball less and less.
Again according to FanGraphs, in 2008 Lincecum threw his fastball 66.1 percent of the time. This year, his fastball percentage is down to 55.5 percent.
Batters don't often swing-and-miss at his fastball these days and some do what the Cubs' Kosuke Fukudome did -- blast it into McCovey Cove last week.
Do you ever remember an iffy hitter like that turning on Lincecum's heater so easily?
We can safely assume that going from a high of 96 mph to a regular 91 mph fastball is a major difference, unless you want to tell me that Prime Dwight Gooden was pretty much the same as Every Day Jamey Wright.
Hitters also are a lot more prepared for Lincecum's changeup/split, though that's still a great pitch. He's throwing it more and more (13.4 percent in 2007, 23.8 percent so far this year), and it's less and less tricky without that fastball to set it up.
Now it's true that, given Lincecum's size, it was a miracle he could throw the ball that hard when he came up. It was inevitable that he would lose mph over time.
He has lost it a lot faster thanks to the work load.
It's probably time for the Giants and Lincecum to acknowledge the simple truth of Buffalo Bills jersey
his and start considering the proper remedies.
That is, unless he fires a no-hitter tonight, using 95-mph heat. But even then, it will probably only be a temporary reprieve from the very real -- and very simple -- symptoms that we all can see.
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